/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

>>486201
Israel emptying it's arsenals of modern weapons to destroy Syria's old weapons. Not a good trade if you ask me.

I think they don't want a new Syrian state to form because they want to conquer at least parts of it. Whether that works out in their favor, i remain skeptical.

>>486202
statement from Tel Aviv:
<If this regime allows Iran to re-establish it self in Syria, or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah
Not if
It's when
They can't seriously expect Iran won't take advantage of the power-vacuum.

>>486019
>t-64 tank
>in the Middle East
lol wut

>>486207
Why not ? I mean there is a lot of soviet weapons floating around. Or is there something specific to the T64 model that makes it unlikely for that region ?

>>486204
>Israel emptying it's arsenals of modern weapons to destroy Syria's old weapons. Not a good trade if you ask me.
One of these countries has bottomless weapons, the other doesn't.
One of them had air defenses, the other has air defenses.

Lebanon still doesn't have air defenses. This is not actually a common thing over there now. There's this weird thing that keeps happening where countries near Israel turn into countries with no air defenses or military to speak of, and then get invaded and massacred or turned into loyal accomplices (who don't care if they're invaded or massacred). It's almost insulting to think this is something else after this has happened so many times.

>Not if
>It's when
>They can't seriously expect Iran won't take advantage of the power-vacuum.
Take advantage with who?
What liberty does a country with no air defenses right next to Israel, crawling with US military and Israeli agents at the time of its "revolution," have to defy Israeli threats? The moment they do anything, they'll be decimated, and they've already declared themselves enemies of Iranian allies like Hezbollah. Who is Iran supposed to deal with?

>>486207
At the time, some speculated that it was misidentified by the US military. I forget what tanks people thought were more likely… could have been a t-64 but idk.

>>486212
>One of these countries has bottomless weapons
Nobody has "bottomless weapons"

>Lebanon still doesn't have air defenses. This is not actually a common thing over there now. There's this weird thing that keeps happening where countries near Israel turn into countries with no air defenses or military to speak of, and then get invaded and massacred
Yeah alright, you have a point here.
To some extent the Russians have been a provider of air-defenses though, at least for those forces that are capable of using these sophisticated systems. The Russians certainly can produce more of those than anybody can resupply jet-fighters.

There also is a new type of air-defences that's likely going to emerge:
A small Air-to-Air missile that gets lifted and launched from a relatively small drone, at low to medium altitude. While in the Air the drone also could give some radar tracking ability. That likely is something that could be deployed by countries like Lebanon. It would be nowhere near as good as the bigger systems, but a lot better than the shouldered fired rocket launchers and fighters like Hezbollah actually would stand a chance to down a few Jets with these.

>Take advantage with who?
>What liberty does a country with no air defenses right next to Israel, crawling with US military and Israeli agents at the time of its "revolution," have to defy Israeli threats? The moment they do anything, they'll be decimated, and they've already declared themselves enemies of Iranian allies like Hezbollah. Who is Iran supposed to deal with?
Syria most likely won't remain a unified country and it will turn into a kaleidoscope of factions. Every power in the region is going to exert influence by allying with these factions. And Iran likely will be doing that too. You can safely ignore the declarations.
Bombing the shit out of people isn't that effective at exerting influence, as a political tool it's too blunt, Israel will not rule over the region by air-power.

>>486217
>I find that what is really happening at the Lebanon Syria border is entirely different to the media narrative of a mass return of jubilant Syrian refugees.
>The numbers returning are negligible.
I didn't watch any mainstream media, are they really pretending that Syrians would be returning home when that means running towards chaos ?

Erdogan is already saying he regrets all the chaos in Syria.

Israel has now advanced beyond the Golan heights and is eyeing southern Syria's agricultural areas. Israeli forces are beginning to get stretched thin.

If Israel gets too greedy they might end up creating a second Hezbollah in Syria. Doublebollah
Turkey might get stuck with a protracted border war.

Iran is now debating it self about getting nukes. I guess the equation is that nukes are expensive, but if having them creates stability, those might pay off in extra economic activity that would shy away from instability.

If the neocons manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on this one, i think that might warrant researching a new type of generator that's powered by irony.

>>486221
Some are returning. But yes, western media is saying it, exaggerating it, and western politicians are now all in unison trying to declare that Syrians' refugee status is null-and-void.

From KernowDamo on the western/media hypocrisy about HTS

Lebanon’s Hezbollah hopes new Syria rejects ‘Israeli occupation’

Lebanon’s Hezbollah armed group on Tuesday expressed hope that neighbouring Syria’s new rulers would reject the “Israeli occupation” of their land, days after the fall of president Bashar al-Assad.

“We hope to see Syria stabilise … and take a firm stand against Israeli occupation, while preventing foreign interference in its affairs,” the Iran-backed group said in a statement.

Hezbollah fought in Syria’s war in support of al-Assad, who had played a key role in helping Iran to supply the Lebanese group with weapons.

But Hezbollah has recently been battered by an intense war with Israel, and much of the group’s leadership have been killed in Israeli attacks.

US embassy in Syria urges US citizens to leave country

Citing a “volatile and unpredictable” security situation throughout the country, the X account of the embassy, which suspended operations in 2012, urged US citizens to leave if they are able.

“The US government is unable to provide any routine or emergency consular services to US citizens in Syria”, its post read, urging those who plan to leave to contact the US embassy in the country they plan to enter.

The main option it gave to citizens was fleeing through the Turkish border, but added that the US embassy in Turkey must facilitate this transfer.

“If you are in Syria, be prepared to shelter in place should the situation deteriorate”, the post says.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/12/10/live-israel-bombards-syria-as-opposition-seeks-to-form-new-government

Kurdish-led forces say they’ve agreed a ceasefire with Turkiye-backed rebels

As we have been reporting, there has been intense fighting between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed rebels around the northern Syrian city of Manbij, with around 218 people killed in just three days.

Now, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi says the US-backed Kurdish group have reached a ceasefire agreement with the Turkey-backed rebels in Manbij.

He said early on Wednesday the ceasefire had been reached through US mediation “to ensure the safety and security of civilians”.

“The fighters of the Manbij Military Council, who have been resisting the attacks since November 27, will withdraw from the area as soon as possible,” Abdi added.

Iran’s Khamenei claims US-Israel plan behind fall of Syria’s al-Assad

In his first comments since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Tehran has “evidence” that “what happened in Syria was the product of a joint plan by the US and the Zionist regime”.

“Yes, a government neighbouring Syria played and is playing a clear role in this. We see this,” he told a gathering in Tehran, referring to Turkiye.

But Khamenei again emphasised that “the main conspirators” were the US and Israel.

Syrian Civil Defence says no chemical leakage after Israeli bombing

The Syrian Civil Defence has said there was no leakage of chemical substances in the al-Qutayfah area near Damascus, after an Israeli bombing had sparked fear of harmful substances having been released.

The civil defence said a specialised team headed to the location after receiving reports of a yellow cloud over the area, but found no traces of chemical vapours.

HTS-led opposition forces take over Manbij after SDF withdrawal

Syrian opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group have taken full control of Manbij in northeastern Syria and have published the footage below, verified by Al Jazeera’s Sanad fact-checking agency.

We reported earlier how the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) evacuated from the area after an agreement.

https://twitter.com/AJA_Syria/status/1866815311321923649

Mausoleum of Bashar al-Assad’s father set on fire in Syria’s Qardaha: Report

The tomb of Hafez al-Assad was torched in his hometown of Qardaha, according to a war monitor and footage taken by the AFP news agency.

The AFP video showed opposition fighters in fatigues and young men watching it burn.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) war monitor told AFP the fighters had set fire to the mausoleum.

It was located in the Latakia heartland of al-Assad’s Alawite community.

Russia says Israeli strikes in Syria violate 1974 pact

Israeli action in Syria violates a treaty between Israel and Syria that ended the 1974 war, known to Israelis as the Yom Kippur War and to Arabs as the October War, the Russian Foreign Ministry says.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing that Israel’s actions did not serve to stabilise the situation in Syria and called on it to show restraint.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that his country aims to impose a “sterile defence zone” in southern Syria as the Israeli military said a wave of its air strikes had destroyed most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpile.

Israel’s military says it has carried out 480 attacks on Syria in the past 48 hours.

Opposition fighters clash with group loyal to al-Assad in Deraa

Syrian fighters have stormed the town of Umm Walad, in the eastern countryside of the Deraa province, to arrest the leader of an armed group known for its loyalty to the ousted al-Assad’s regime, according to social media footage verified by Al Jazeera’s Sanad agency.

The fighters imposed a curfew in the town and clashed with the group led by Mohammed Ali al-Rifai, nicknamed Abu Ali al-Lahham, who fled the town.

Turkish forces and proxies bombard villages in northeast Syria: Monitor

Turkiye and its proxies stationed in Syria have bombarded several villages in Tel Tamr countryside and nearby villages in Hasakah in northeastern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The UK-based war monitor said displaced civilians from the targeted villages rushed out to safer areas.

On Sunday, it reported Turkish forces firing artillery shells on Kurdish-controlled positions in the northwestern part of Hasakah.

“The bombardment indiscriminately targeted civilian houses, which triggered a state of panic among residents, amid concerns about military escalation by Turkish forces following the toppling of al-Assad.”

Russia warns of ISIL emergence again in Syria: Report

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has warned that there was a real risk that ISIL (ISIS) fighters could rise again in Syria, the state RIA news agency reported.

ISIL is designated as a “terrorist group” by authorities in Russia who have banned it.

Israeli air strikes a ‘huge’ challenge for new administration
Resul Serdar Atas
Reporting from Damascus, Syria

Israel is carrying out the largest aerial operations in Syria in its army’s history. It is hitting the northern cities, the coastal cities of Tartous and Latakia, Homs, Hama and in and around the capital, Damascus.

I was inside a military airport, one of the largest ones in Damascus, which has been hit by Israel several times in the last couple of days.

Two helicopters – one cargo and another an attack helicopter – both Russian-made, were burned to the ground by the Israeli air force.

These air strikes are really a huge challenge for the new administration of Syria as they try to preserve the state apparatus, while also trying to provide security.

Iran rejects ‘rumour’ that $42m taken from its embassy in Syria

Iran’s embassy in Syria denies claims that money sent by Tehran to be spent in Syria and Lebanon has been stolen.

“There were no possessions or resources inside the Iranian embassy building in Syria at the time of its violation,” the embassy said, according to state-run IRNA.

“All had been predicted before evacuation, and the issue of the theft of $42m is a rumour that seditionists released for consumption within Iran.”

Iran’s Khamenei claims US-Israel plan behind fall of Syria’s al-Assad

In his first comments since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Tehran has “evidence” that “what happened in Syria was the product of a joint plan by the US and the Zionist regime”.

“Yes, a government neighbouring Syria played and is playing a clear role in this. We see this,” he told a gathering in Tehran, referring to Turkiye.

But Khamenei again emphasised that “the main conspirators” were the US and Israel.

Iran-backed ‘axis of resistance’ to encompass whole region: Khamenei

Iran’s Khamenei says the nature of the Iran-backed “axis of resistance” is that it will get more resilient and strong the more pressure it comes under.

“I tell you this, with God’s help, the expanse of the resistance will more than before encompass the whole region,” the supreme leader asserted to cheers by a crowd that also chanted “death to the US” and “death to Israel”.

Khamenei said “ignorant” analysts who are unaware of the true meaning of the axis of resistance believe that if the axis is weakened, “Islamic Iran” is also weakened.

“I tell you this, with God’s help, strong Iran is powerful and will become even more powerful.”

Iran’s Khamenei says occupied Syrian territory will be liberated

We have more lines from Khamenei’s speech:

Occupied Syrian territory will be liberated by brave Syrian youth. Do not doubt that this will happen, and the US will be ejected from the region by the ‘axis of resistance’.
The goal of Daesh [ISIL or ISIS] was to make Syria, Iraq and the region insecure, with the ultimate target of making the Islamic Republic of Iran insecure.
Were we present in Syria? Everybody knows that, yes, the martyrs of defenders of the shrine show that we were present.
When everybody worked with Saddam Hussein and against us [during Iraq’s invasion of Iran in the 1980s], Syria cut off the pipe taking Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean and Europe. The Islamic republic did not leave this service unreturned.
Senior Iranian commanders write to me to say they yearn to fight in Lebanon. Compare this with an army [in Syria] which cannot hold, and flees. This is why resistance is important.
Syria’s events have lessons for us all, including our officials. One of the lessons is negligence about the enemy.
Our intelligence agencies sent warning reports to Syrian authorities from months ago but were ignored.
The US and the Zionist regime closed Syria’s skies and its land routes so we could not send help.

Russia condemns Israel for attacks on ‘already destabilised Syria’

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Russia wants to see Syria quickly “stabilised”, slamming Israel’s strikes on the country and the creation of a “buffer zone” along the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

“The strikes, the actions in the Golan Heights and the buffer zone hardly contribute to the stabilisation of the situation in the already destabilised Syria,” Peskov said.

He also said Moscow was in contact with the new Syrian leadership over the fate of Russia’s military bases in the country.

“This is necessary since our [military] base and diplomatic mission are there,” Peskov added.

Iranian currency reaches record low after fall of al-Assad

The overthrow of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad has caused not only political but now also economic damage for his erstwhile ally Iran.

The Iranian currency, the rial, plunged further after the change of power in Syria and fell to a record low on Wednesday.

In the capital Tehran, the dollar exchange rate at currency exchanges rose to more than 740,000 rials, while the unofficial euro exchange rate rose to more than 770,000 rials.

The rial’s latest dollar exchange rate marks a significant decline since President Masoud Pezeshkian took office on July 30, when it was 584,000 rials.

In 2015, the nuclear deal initially set the rate at 32,000 rials to the dollar.

Currency brokers fear that the rate could even rise to 1 million rials if the conflict in the Middle East continues for a longer period.

Israeli strikes across Syria continue

A reminder that Israeli army has been carrying out its largest air offensive on Syria.

There have been nearly 500 strikes across Syria, including the capital Damascus, in just a few days.

Among targets hit were two naval facilities where 15 vessels were docked.

Israel says its attacks have destroyed 80 percent of Syria’s military capabilities.

In addition, Israeli troops are also moving deeper into the occupied Golan Heights.

src: youknowwho

>>486230
So is the UK going to abolish that retarded "terror act" law in order to protect the Zionists ?

>>486228
>western politicians are now all in unison trying to declare that Syrians' refugee status is null-and-void.
So the Syrians get deported in to hell, where they will have no choice but to become resistance fighters who fund them selves by being an Iranian proxy.

>>486241
>Iranian currency reaches record low after fall of al-Assad
>The overthrow of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad has caused not only political but now also economic damage for his erstwhile ally Iran.
>The Iranian currency, the rial, plunged further after the change of power in Syria and fell to a record low on Wednesday.
>In the capital Tehran, the dollar exchange rate at currency exchanges rose to more than 740,000 rials, while the unofficial euro exchange rate rose to more than 770,000 rials.

That means Iran now has no choice but to go all in with BRICS because that'll be the only place where they can sell their stuff and get payed for it.

UN experts say Israeli strikes on Syria against international law

Israel’s strikes on Syria following the fall of al-Assad violate international law, UN experts said, branding Israel’s attempts to “preemptively disarm” its foes as “lawless”.

Since al-Assad’s overthrow, Israel, which borders Syria, has sent troops into a buffer zone on the east of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, in a move the UN has said violates a 1974 armistice. Israel’s army said it had conducted hundreds of strikes against Syrian military assets in the past two days, claiming to target everything from chemical weapons stores to air defences to keep them out of rebel hands.

“There is absolutely no basis under international law to preventively or preemptively disarm a country you don’t like,” said Ben Saul, UN special rapporteur on the promotion of human rights while countering terrorism. “If that were the case, it would be a recipe for global chaos,” he told reporters in Geneva, pointing out that “lots of countries have adversaries they would like to see without weapons”.

“You can’t just follow your enemy wherever they are in the world, and bomb them in some third country, which has been Israel’s approach.”

Kurdish-led SDF leader warns ISIL threat reemerging

The leader of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, says a resurgent ISIL (ISIS) group is seeking to capitalise on the situation following the fall of al-Assad.

“[ISIL] is now stronger in the Syrian desert. Previously, they were in remote areas and hiding, but now they have greater freedom of movement since they face no issues with other groups and are not engaged in conflict with them,” the leader of the US-backed group, which was defeated by ISIL in 2019, told Sky News.

Abdi also warned that ISIL could seek to take advantage of the Kurdish-led forces’ conflict with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army to attack SDF-run detention camps and release ISIL-affiliated prisoners.

“Generally, the effectiveness of our forces and those of the coalition against [ISIL] diminishes when we are focused on protecting civilians and our communities,” he said.

“Frankly, there is currently a significant threat to the security of these detention centres.”

src: youknowwho

>>486253
>“There is absolutely no basis under international law to preventively or preemptively disarm a country you don’t like,”
>said Ben Saul, UN special rapporteur
This feels like the preschool teacher yelling at Jimmy to stop stabbing Cedric with a fork

>>486255
Whenever people talk to Israel about international law, human rights, etc. it honestly feels to me like any time the humans tried to negotiate with the aliens in Mars Attacks.

>>486266
kek that is so true

>>486275
You make this? 5 stars

Ukraine aided Syrian rebels with drones: Report

The Syrian rebels who deposed al-Assad received drones and other support from Ukrainian operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, The Washington Post reports.

Citing “knowledgeable” sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad, The Post says that Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and 150 first-person-view drones to the Idlib headquarters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham four to five weeks ago.

The Post described these efforts as playing a “modest role” in the overthrow of al-Assad, but said they form “part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself”.

Iranian official blames al-Assad for ignoring warnings

Mohammad Bagher Ghaliba, Iran’s parliament speaker, has acknowledged that the fall of Syria’s al-Assad has “disrupted the momentum” of the Iran-backed “axis of resistance”.

Iran’s IRNA state news agency quoted him as saying that al-Assad’s government ignored Iranian warnings before the rebel advances that ousted him.

If those warnings had been heeded, he said, “today the Syrian nation would not be on the verge of internal chaos, sectarian settlements, and damage to national assets”.

Nevertheless, Ghaliba pledged that the “resistance axis”, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah armed group, will emerge “alive and stronger than before” and that Syria will instil “national dignity”.

“We are confident that … the Syrian people will come to their senses upon seeing the deplorable situation that has befallen their country, and the patriotic Syrian youth will be able to find a path to restoring their national dignity,” he concluded.

Syria’s new government to suspend constitution, parliament for three months

Obaida Arnaout, Syria’s new government spokesman, says “a judicial and human rights committee will be established to examine the constitution and then introduce amendments.”

Arnaout told the AFP news agency that a meeting would be held on Tuesday “between Salvation Government ministers and the former ministers” of al-Assad’s administration to carry out the transfer of power.

“This transitional period will last three months,” he added. “Our priority is to preserve and protect institutions.”

Speaking at the state television headquarters, now seized by the new rebel authorities, Arnaout pledged they would institute “the rule of law”.

src: youknowwho

>>486286
you get credit for pointing out the similarities with the Mars Attacks movie.

Also I found that pretending Netanyahu says "Ack Ack, Ack!" during his speeches has surprising mental health benefits.

>>486275
>>486321
Officially endorsed: https://x.com/RealLeftypol/status/1869774861759033740

>>486426
nice

Damn this site is so fucking slow and dead
Syrian turkish jihadist sanduyghurs had their own stunning coat of arms, yet still picked the shitty template version to reskin

>>486595
Actual subhumans defending this choice of inferior aesthetic

>>486595
this is about the bird picture ? One has the wingtips pointed down and one has them pointing up.

Can you explain why coat of arms do ?
There are sooo many of these and they're hard to tell apart.

>>486610
The one with the wings up is original. The rest is a shitty lazily reskinned template, because the turkish jihadists got their brains fried from huffing sand.

>>486595
>>486597
Wait, but if you preferred the 'wings up' version and that's the previous on, why does the guy in the picture have a CIA patch? That seems like it would be more of a patch HTS guys would have.

>>486626
No idea how you or anyone finds the time to be racist about something this insignificant.

According to Red,
The Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have regained control of eastern neighborhoods in Manbij, a strategic northern Syrian city. This comes after the SDF launched a counteroffensive against the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
https://twitter.com/redstreamnet/status/1873708894499057728

>>486637
>US-backed … Forces … launched a counteroffensive against the Turkish-backed … Army
So the Assad government was among other things also acting as a buffer that prevented new antagonisms between the US an Turkey.

>>486650
From my POV this is basically US against US. Until Erdogan does something substantial, militarily, against Israel that matches the rhetoric, I'll see him as entirely on board with the US agenda.

The new Syrian government is appointing Chechens, uyghurs, Egyptians, Jordanians, Turks, and Albanians to military positions.

"The sources said that out of a total of almost 50 military roles announced by the Defence Ministry on Sunday, at least six had gone to foreigners."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-appoints-some-foreign-islamist-fighters-its-military-sources-say-2024-12-30/

According to Craig Murray, all 50 military appointments have gone to Sunnis.

https://x.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1874073178701479968

>>486651
I think, Israel has over-extended it self big time, and it's hollowing out its foundations to fuel the expansion. Erdogan could be waiting for an opportunity to exploit that. Low budget imperialism

>>486652
Even US-backed forces have to fulfill diversity quotas..

>>486659
They don't call it DEISIS for nothing.

>>486662
lol
>>486659
What does D and E stand for ?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/1/several-feared-dead-as-truck-crashes-into-new-orleans-crowd-report
Blowback coming really fast these days.

Since overthrowing the Syrian government has thrown Syria into chaos, the Syrian arsenal is now being sold off on the black market.

That means that Hezbollah is now able to buy weapons at a steep discount.

>>486898
Initially surprised there was anything left tbh not that I should have been, obviously there'd still be, like, AKs and bullets like you attached at the very least and probably other stuff

>>486979
After the Syrian government folded. Israel launched a frantic bombing campaign to destroy the big ticket items like tanks, helicopters, AA-radars/launchers and so on. I guess they destroyed 50% to 75% of that stuff. But they probably only got 10% of the smaller items.

Like you said, it's probably more than automatic rifles. Likely are mortars, rocket-pods, light cannons (for point defense or mounted on pickup trucks) , grenades and perhaps drones.

Israel bodied Iran and its entire axis. Now with Syria fallen there's an open corridor for IAF sorties to take out Iran's nuke sites a la Osirak 1981

>>486987
>Israel bodied Iran and its entire axis.
Yemen's still hitting Israel even as the US and UK continue to bomb Yemen on Israel's behalf.

>Now with Syria fallen there's an open corridor for IAF sorties to take out Iran's nuke sites a la Osirak 1981
The last time Israel (or possibly the US, see Daniel Alwan's possibly opsec-breaking post) attacked Iran directly, they struggled to get close enough to hit much, and that seems to have been down to Iran's own air defenses - Assad didn't do much of anything to impede them, an approach which, in retrospect, some would say was a mistake.

>>486987
>Israel bodied Iran and its entire axis.
Isreal has mainly bodied bloodied children in Gaza.

>Now with Syria fallen there's an open corridor
Those linchpin theories usually don't pan out.

>for IAF sorties to take out Iran's
Iran seem to have a potent air defense system these days. The last time Israel attempted an air-raid, was a few months ago. They fired fighter based long range stand-off weapons into Iran. By all appearances those ran into a veritable air-defense buzz-saw and very few targets were actually hit. After that Israel called off the followup strikes they had previously announced.

# Iran's Axis of Resistance After Assad: Strategic Decline and Adaptation in a Shifting Middle East

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 has precipitated a fundamental realignment of Middle Eastern geopolitics, dealing a severe blow to Iran’s decades-old strategy of regional dominance through its "Axis of Resistance." This network of state and non-state allies—including Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and Yemen’s Houthis—has served as the cornerstone of Tehran’s foreign policy since the 1980s, enabling it to project power across the Levant and counter U.S.-Israeli influence. However, Assad’s fall has shattered the logistical backbone of this axis, severing Iran’s land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and exposing the fragility of its proxy-first strategy. With Syria now in disarray, regional adversaries like Turkey and Israel are capitalizing on Tehran’s weakened position, while internal debates within Iran’s leadership reveal diverging paths forward: doubling down on asymmetric warfare or pivoting to conventional deterrence. The Islamic Republic’s ability to adapt to this new reality will shape not only its regional standing but also the future stability of the Middle East.

—

## The Strategic Importance of Syria to Iran’s Axis of Resistance

### Syria as Iran’s Geopolitical Linchpin
Syria’s centrality to Iran’s regional strategy cannot be overstated. For over four decades, the Iranian-Syrian alliance provided Tehran with a critical conduit for projecting influence westward to the Mediterranean, enabling the steady flow of weapons, funds, and personnel to Hezbollah in Lebanon[1][3][6]. This "Shiite Crescent"—stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon—allowed Tehran to maintain a credible deterrent against Israel while counterbalancing Sunni Arab rivals like Saudi Arabia. The Assad regime’s survival during the Syrian Civil War (2011–2024) depended heavily on Iran’s military and financial support, which included deploying Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisors and mobilizing Shia militias from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan[1][6].

The collapse of this corridor following Assad’s ouster has left Iran scrambling to maintain supply lines to Hezbollah, its most capable proxy. Analysts note that without reliable overland routes through Syria, Tehran must now rely on riskier air and sea shipments, which are more vulnerable to Israeli interdiction[3][6]. This logistical disruption coincides with Hezbollah’s military degradation after months of intense conflict with Israel, further eroding Iran’s ability to threaten Israeli territory from Lebanon[1][2].

—

## The Erosion of Iran’s Proxy Network

### Hezbollah: A Weakened Pillar of the Axis
Hezbollah’s diminished capacity represents one of the most immediate consequences of Assad’s fall. Prior to 2023, the group possessed an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, many of which were supplied via the Syrian corridor[6]. However, sustained Israeli airstrikes targeting weapon depots and transit routes have degraded this arsenal, while Hezbollah’s political capital in Lebanon has waned due to economic collapse and public backlash against Iranian influence[2][4]. Iranian officials privately acknowledge that rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities could take years—a timeline complicated by Syria’s instability and Lebanon’s fragmented governance[3][6].

### Hamas and the Gaza Debacle
Hamas, though geographically isolated from the Syrian corridor, has also suffered strategic setbacks that ripple across the Axis. Israel’s military campaign in Gaza since October 2023 has dismantled much of Hamas’ governance infrastructure and reduced its rocket-launching capacity by an estimated 70%[2][4]. While Iran continues to fund Hamas, the group’s inability to pose a credible threat from Gaza undermines Tehran’s narrative of a united "resistance front." Moreover, the lack of a Syrian staging ground limits Iran’s ability to coordinate arms transfers to Hamas via Sinai or maritime routes[4].

### The Houthis: Iran’s Last Standing Proxy?
Yemen’s Houthi rebels now represent Tehran’s most active proxy force, having launched numerous missile and drone attacks against Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets. However, their utility is constrained by geographic distance from Iran’s core interests and reliance on limited weapon stocks. Israeli precision strikes on Sana’a in early 2025 demonstrated the vulnerability of Houthi assets, while Saudi-led coalition pressures further strain their operational freedom[1][4]. Analysts warn that without Syrian or Iraqi transit routes, resupplying the Houthis will become increasingly difficult for Iran[6].

—

## Regional Power Shifts and Iran’s Strategic Isolation

### Turkey’s Ascendance in Northern Syria
Turkey has emerged as a primary beneficiary of Syria’s destabilization, leveraging its support for Sunni opposition groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to expand influence in northern Syria[1]. By positioning itself as a stabilizing force, Ankara has curtailed Iranian-backed militias’ ability to operate near the Turkish border, while its economic investments in rebel-held territories undermine Tehran’s efforts to rally Alawite and Shia minorities[1][6]. Notably, Turkey’s alignment with the Trump administration’s anti-Iran agenda has provided diplomatic cover for its Syrian interventions, further isolating Tehran[1].

### Israel’s Unshackled Military Posture
Israel has exploited the post-Assad power vacuum to intensify strikes against Iranian assets across the region. With Syrian air defenses in disarray, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has conducted unprecedented raids targeting IRGC bases in eastern Syria and weapon convoys bound for Hezbollah[2][4]. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government views Assad’s ouster as an opportunity to dismantle the Axis of Resistance permanently, lobbying the U.S. to greenlight potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities[2][6].

### Russia’s Retreat and the Limits of Patronage
Moscow’s declining military footprint in Syria has compounded Iran’s challenges. While Russia once provided diplomatic cover for Assad at the UN Security Council, its focus on the Ukraine conflict has reduced its appetite for Syrian entanglements. This withdrawal has left Iranian-backed militias exposed to Turkish and Israeli offensives, undermining Tehran’s ability to hold territorial gains[1][4].

—

## Iran’s Strategic Crossroads: Adaptation or Escalation?

### Path 1: Doubling Down on Asymmetric Warfare
Some Iranian hardliners advocate reinforcing the remnants of the Axis by mobilizing Iraqi militias and the Houthis against U.S. and Israeli targets. This approach mirrors Tehran’s playbook during the Iraq War, when proxy attacks on coalition forces extracted concessions from Washington. However, the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah raises doubts about the viability of this strategy[2][6]. Escalating attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf could provoke direct U.S. military retaliation, a risk Iran’s leadership has historically sought to avoid[4][6].

### Path 2: Pivoting to Conventional Deterrence
An alternative path involves diverting resources from proxy warfare to bolster Iran’s domestic military capabilities, particularly its missile and drone arsenals. The IRGC’s Aerospace Force recently unveiled the Kheibar Shekan-3 ballistic missile, with a reported range of 2,000 km—capable of striking Israel without Syrian launchpads[5]. Concurrently, Tehran has accelerated uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels, signaling a potential shift toward nuclear deterrence[5]. While this strategy reduces reliance on unstable proxies, it risks triggering preemptive strikes by Israel or the U.S.[2][5].

### Path 3: Diplomatic Reengagement
A less likely but plausible scenario involves Iran seeking détente with regional rivals to stabilize its western flank. Preliminary talks with Syria’s post-Assad government suggest Tehran is exploring avenues to preserve limited influence in Damascus, possibly through economic investments or cultural outreach[4][5]. However, such efforts face stiff resistance from Turkey and Arab states determined to curtail Iranian meddling[1][6].

—

## Internal Fractures and the Nuclear Wildcard

### Leadership Divisions in Tehran
The post-Assad crisis has exacerbated tensions between pragmatic and hardline factions within Iran’s political establishment. President Massoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024 on promises of economic reform, faces mounting pressure to prioritize domestic stability over costly foreign adventures[5]. Conversely, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC commanders remain committed to the Axis doctrine, framing it as an ideological imperative rather than a mere policy choice[2][4]. This fbi.gov complicates coherent strategy-making, with competing power centers pursuing divergent agendas[5].

### The Nuclear Calculus
Iran’s nuclear program looms larger in its post-Assad strategic calculus. With conventional proxies weakened, hardliners argue that nuclear latency—or even weaponization—could restore deterrence against Israel[2][5]. Satellite imagery from January 2025 revealed expanded centrifuge arrays at Fordow, suggesting Tehran is hedging its bets. However, overt pursuit of nuclear arms risks unified Western-Arab-Israeli retaliation, including potential military action[2][5].

—

## Conclusion: A Diminished Axis in a Contested Region

The fall of Bashar al-Assad has irrevocably altered the Middle Eastern strategic landscape, exposing the limitations of Iran’s proxy-centric approach. While the Axis of Resistance retains residual capabilities—particularly in Yemen and Iraq—its heyday as a coherent anti-Western alliance has passed. Iran now faces a dilemma: continue pouring resources into rebuilding fractured proxies or reorient toward conventional/nuclear deterrence. Either path carries significant risks, from regional escalation to internal unrest.

Regional adversaries, sensing Tehran’s vulnerability, are likely to intensify pressure on its remaining allies. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and the Houthis shows no signs of abating, while Turkey’s entrenchment in northern Syria complicates Iranian efforts to regain influence. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its Arab partners have an opportunity to leverage Iran’s weakened position for diplomatic gains, potentially offering sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on proxy activities.

Ultimately, the Axis’s prospects hinge on Tehran’s ability to reconcile ideological imperatives with geopolitical realities. A pragmatic recalibration—reducing reliance on unstable proxies while engaging in guarded diplomacy—may offer the only viable path to preserving Iran’s regional relevance. However, with hardliners dominating key institutions, such a shift remains unlikely in the near term. The Middle East thus enters 2025 poised between the fading echoes of Iran’s resistance doctrine and the uncertain contours of a new order.

Citations:
[1] https://gulfif.org/iran-grapples-with-a-new-strategic-reality-after-assads-ouster/
[2] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/19/irans-3-possible-post-assad-paths/
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/middleeast/irans-syria-axis-of-resistance.html
[4] https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/breaking-the-chain-why-assads-fall-leaves-iran-scrambling/
[5] https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/country-to-watch-2025-iran-195462
[6] https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-syria-assad-lebanon-hezbollah/33232587.html
[7] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/gaza-iran-resistance-axis-hamas-hezbollah-israel/
[8] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/analysis-how-does-assads-ouster-in-syria-affect-irans-influence-over-the-region
[9] https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/12/31/how-syria-fell-and-whats-next-for-irans-axis-of-resistance/
[10] https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/sharper-iran-and-the-axis-of-upheaval
[11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/21/the-iran-led-axis-of-resistance-in-the-aftermath-of-syrias-upheaval
[12] https://www.stimson.org/2025/what-roles-will-russia-and-iran-play-in-post-assad-syria/
[13] https://san.com/cc/assad-ouster-in-syria-will-have-ripple-effects-in-iran-russia/
[14] https://www.stimson.org/2025/irans-axis-of-resistance-weakened-but-still-dangerous/
[15] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501010857
[16] https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/fall-assad-has-exposed-extent-damage-irans-axis-resistance
[17] https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/will-iran-become-more-dangerous-after-assads-ouster-syria
[18] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/10/iran-syria-nuclear-weapons-israel-assad/
[19] https://economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/is-iran-next-fall-of-assad-jolts-a-vulnerable-leadership/articleshow/116197202.cms
[20] https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/07/the-future-of-irans-foreign-policy-in-the-complex-geopolitics-of-the-post-assad-middle-east/
[21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/21/the-iran-led-axis-of-resistance-in-the-aftermath-of-syrias-upheaval
[22] https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/01/the-fall-of-assad-could-be-a-turning-point-for-the.html
[23] https://www.barrons.com/articles/ouster-of-assad-breaks-link-in-iran-s-axis-of-resistance-e87e0dd2
[24] https://www.timesofisrael.com/assads-collapse-fractures-iranian-axis-but-ensuing-chaos-could-batter-rest-of-region/
[25] https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/with-the-axis-of-resistance-in-retreat-how-will-the-iranian-people-respond/
[26] https://tribune.com.pk/story/2516637/iran-rejects-claims-of-collapsed-resistance-axis-after-syrias-assad-ouster-says-supreme-leader
[27] https://www.oxan.com/insights/prospects-for-middle-east-security-in-2025/
[28] https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/12/31/how-syria-fell-and-whats-next-for-irans-axis-of-resistance/
[29] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/reshaping-iran%E2%80%99s-axis-resistance
[30] https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2636966-assad-s-ouster-removes-key-outlet-for-iran-s-crude
[31] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c05pmmzp63zo
[32] https://www.barrons.com/articles/iran-s-khamenei-says-resistance-not-over-after-assad-ouster-4f979658

>>487598
Nice war propaganda, PNAC.

>it risks triggering preemptive strikes by Israel or the U.S.
For all the very obvious bullshit in this piece, this item especially sticks out. Israel has already launched multiple "preemptive" strikes on Iran in the past year. The US's conduct in Iraq showed that no actual threat of any sort of "WMD" is necessary - they'll just start a war of aggression and claim it's "preemptive." The idea that Iran is racing to produce nuclear weapons and the US is making any calculations based on "preventing" that is a total fantasy. It's not how the US operates.

Time and time again, the US (and its proxies) have made shit up as a pretext to invade other countries.

>>487598
This does not present a solid argument why Iran won't be able to have influence in Post-Assad Syria. If Iran build up a network of proxies allies all throughout west Asia since the 1980s. They prolly just continue doing that in Syria. Given Israel's escalating atrocities, they probably motivated a lot of people to oppose Israel.

Your LLM just declares the situation has "irrevocably changed" but it hasn't. It also declares Hezbollah is out of the game, when in reality they fought Israel to standstill again. By the way Hezbollah formed independently from Iran, as a response to an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The only true change is that Iran has tech-ed up and Israel no longer has better military hardware. That last exchange of hostilities (the back and forth airstrikes) had Iran at an advantage. The Iranian missiles punched through Israel's air defense systems, while the Israeli strike with fighter-jet based stand-off weapons, was mostly repelled, and follow up strikes had to be called off.

The "nuclear calculus" is that the Russians have convinced Iran that it can generate sufficient deterrence without nukes. And that probably is true, Israel is very small and a sufficiently powerful conventional arsenal will do the trick.

>>487601
>The only true change is that Iran has tech-ed up and Israel no longer has better military hardware. That last exchange of hostilities (the back and forth airstrikes) had Iran at an advantage. The Iranian missiles punched through Israel's air defense systems, while the Israeli strike with fighter-jet based stand-off weapons, was mostly repelled, and follow up strikes had to be called off.
Ha ha ha, foolish anon
You believed your lying eyes!
I have it on good word passed down from the Biden state department, renowned for its honesty, that akshually the last Israeli attack on Iran destroyed Iran's air defenses! They were located in the sky far above Iran, which is why almost all of the Israeli missiles exploded up there! That's also where Iran stores its drone motherships!